Most of the believers interpret it as if the God decided our course of life and that we will follow it no matter what, since it is our destiny. Of course this is just one of the point of views which may have a high accuracy in terms of explaining the phenomena.
Here, what I want to express is another point of view, which also yields to the conclusion that Human Behavior is higly predictive and can/will be predicted with a high accuracy in not so distant future: The Book of Destiny could be written, because each individuals course of life can be predicted according to a complex set of simple laws of science. It could be predicted and written down by God, since God has the ultimate knowledge of and the ultimate processing capability upon the laws of universe. That is: It is written because it is calculated to happen and it will happen not because it is written, but because it will happen as a result of other actions that prepared the suitable conditions for it to happen.
The idea behind this article depends on the facts that:
- The Universe is based on simple laws
- Every event is the result of a unified results of other events
- A formula can be extracted inspecting the simple laws of universe and the course of events to predict the results of current events
There are two main inputs to a possible event prediction formula: The Universe Factor and the Human Factor:
The Universe factor can be described as the results of static events like laws of physics, laws of chemistry, laws of biology etc. Which are proved to be highly predictable if the variables of their functions are known.
The Human Factor is so far the less predictable input which can be described as results of the human decision making process. So, in order to predict destiny we need to predict the results of human decision making process accurately. Is this really possible?
So far, especially psychology tried to understand the human behavior: the inputs, the modifiers, drives of human behavior. Although there are some thesis about the human decision making process, so far none of them succeeded in a general purpose predication of human behavior. Here, I wanted to share my own point of view, about the human decision making process, or, we could say the code loop of human computer.
Simplification of Human Behavior
The human brain is a huge multi-tasking computer running as many threads as needed at the same time at different priority and visibility levels. Here I want to concentrate on two main threads, the concious visible decision processor and the subconcious invisible decision creator.
To clarify what i mean by those two threads, think of decision making as two stages, in stage one, you populate a list of alternative decisions and in stage two, you pick one of the decisions in the list and apply it.
Now what the subconcious thread does is to populate a list of possible alternative decisions and estimate a rating for each entry in the list. And what second thread does is to select the decision with best rating, or re-evaluate the top entries with same ratings, or even post back the list to thread one for re-evaluation based on the statistics of the initial list.
To clarify those steps, follow the example below:
A goes to a cafe, decides to order a drink, takes a look at the menu.
* Thread one populates a list with entries in the menu as "Ordering Actions"
* Thread one rates each entry using a formula and sorts them based on ratings
A is sure that he doesnt want to drink coffee but can not decide if he should order a strawberry freezer or a banana freezer.
* Now Thread one is in charge, it correctly disqualifies coffee since it has a low rating, but can not differentiate between strawberry freezer or banana freezer since they have the exact same ratings.
* So, it posts back those two entries to Thread one, for a finer re-evaluation
* Thread one increases the number of variables in calculation to calculate better estimation of the ratings.
* One of the new variables in the formula is the season, Thread one calculates that it is spring and the strawberry is not fresh and not at the desired taste level, slightly decreases the rating of the strawberry freezer.
* Thread two inspects the results of thread one, deciding to order banana freezer which now has a much better rating compared to strawberry freezer.
Ratings
The most important role here is the calculation of ratings. How does Thread one calculates the ratings?
RATE(x) = TDC(x1) * RATE(x1) + TDC(x2) * RATE(x2) + ..... + TDC(xN) * RATE(xN)
Here TDC refers to "Table of Dynamic Constants". What do I mean by "Table of Dynamic Constants"?
Each individual has both a drive and a proportional value of that drive compared to other drives. An example would be "fear" and the proportional constant of how much we care fear. A person can fear from a dog which could be quantified as 80 points where he cares his fear only %10 while decision making, giving a RATE(touch the dog) = TDC(fear) * RATE(fear) + TDC(touch) + RATE(touch)..... in this case, the effect of fear in the formula becomes only 8 points (80 * %10).
Each of those Dynamic constants forms a TABLE, a table which can be named as the character of that person which starts with some random numbers when that person is born and tries to reach to an optimum situation throughout that persons life. That is why I call it Table of Dynamic Constants. They are constant in any given decision calculation, but also they change and converge to an optimum value between different calculations depending on the satisfaction of the previous decisions.
So, it becomes clear that, there are two stages in determining ratings system for an individual, we need a way to decide which factors affect which calculation and most importantly, we need to extract the Table of Dynamic Constants of a person whom we need to predicate his/her decision.
Once the first stage is accomplished, it is very easy to extract the second stage, we can always inspect a persons past decisions extracting equations using the variable list of stage one, with TDC(x) as the variable and then derive an estimate for TDC(x) by comparing the different equations, the value that satisfies all the past equations can be considered as an estimate of TDC(x).
Once the TDC is reconstructed, it is possible to duplicate the ratings of a person on a given set of alternatives possibly leading to the result of predicting that persons next decision.
* I just realized that it is much complex than I thought to write down and explain such a diverse subject. I hope to continue on this subject soon :)
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